CURRENT MARKET STRENGTH

Click to View Full Size ChartCMS represents an aircraft’s current strength in the market. An A+ rating indicates the aircraft is enjoying a very firm market. Prices for an A+ aircraft are steadily rising, and holding times are very short or nonexistent. At the opposite end of the spectrum, a C- aircraft is one experiencing a very soft market. Its price is commonly discounted, and it often sets on the ramp in excess of eight months before selling. It is important to remember that Current Market Strength is not a forecast. It is valid only at Marketline’s effective date of release.

MARKETLINE CHARTS

All of the listed aircraft have a composite score that is presented in the Used Aircraft Market graph. Data points are represented in relationship to the respective new delivered historical price that is equal to 100%. The measure of change is reported in the actual percentage of value in relation to new. The delta between reporting periods can be concluded as the percentage of change.

Click any chart to view it Full Size

Click here to download a PDF of the full Marketline Newsletter, including articles and all Charts.

What Goes Around Comes Around During Economic Recoveries

Vol. 24, No. 3 | September 13, 2011 | Go to Charts
by Carl Janssens, ASA | Aircraft Bluebook — Price Digest

Pick your adjective.

A wide disparity exists in today’s pre-owned business aircraft market, and just about any adjective will accurately describe some part of the market.

Great can be used to describe late-model large-cabin global business jets, which include models such as the Global XRS, Dassault Falcon 7X and Gulfstream G550.

Then there is the awful when dealing with a legacy business jet punching through its 30th anniversary of service.

For a while now, there have been at least two distinct markets. This scenario is not news, yet many in this industry seem puzzled about market dynamics. 

Why does the pre-owned market appear to be good, bad and confused? The answer is the closed traffic pattern around the economy. As the recovery stumbles along, confidence remains shaky. We can’t break out of the pattern. To make matters murkier, the preseason presidential election rallies are in full swing with the all-out campaigns next. Oh joy.

For this edition of Marketline, I could not find an angle that hasn’t already been explored by someone else. I went to the Bluebook archives and pulled out an Aircraft Bluebook Marketline from 1992 for inspiration, and I think I have found a good way to predict what’s next in the economy. Even in this lethargic economic recovery, what goes around comes around. Historically, there has always been an economic recovery followed by a peak and then another slow down.

Marketline has done a pretty good job at reporting trends. The pre-owned market knows its position in this cycle. Someone out there is bound to make the calculated decision to buy now rather than later realizing the upswing is on the way.

Jet

Bluebook-at-a-glance
Increased — 9
Decreased — 353
Stable — 561

The jet segment experienced few positive moves. Early Citation Sovereigns edged upward. The Gulfstream G550 saw the greatest value increase — by more than $2 million. 

Decreases affected all categories. The majority of the jet market was reported as stable, though.

Turboprop

Bluebook-at-a-glance 
Increased — 23
Decreased — 74
Stable — 508

The turboprop market continued to demonstrate signs of stability, which are good signs of an economic recovery in progress. Turbine-powered ag planes continue to be nearly nonexistent in the resale market. Late-model twins, such as the Beech King Air 350i and the B200GT, likewise are nearly unavailable. Inventories available for sale held in check or slightly increased when compared to the previous quarter.

Multi   

Bluebook-at-a-glance      
Increased — 58
Decreased — 17
Stable — 582

Single

Bluebook-at-a-glance
Increased — 144
Decreased — 225
Stable — 2174

The piston segment has had the least amount of price change activity. Even though sale prices were stationary when compared to last quarter, transactions were on the rise. (Refer to the graphs that follow.) Bargain hunters also appeared to have given up their quest for the deal of the day and have taken their place on the fence to wait and see. Wait too long, and it might cost more to buy tomorrow.

Helicopter

Bluebook-at-a-glance
Increased — 65
Decreased — 92
Stable — 910

Helicopters are continuing to show some signs of stabilization. Reported values for the majority of this segment remained unchanged when compared to the previous quarter. The Robinson R44 and R22 continued to edge upward about $8000 to $9000 in retail value. 

Aircraft Bluebook – Price Digest here for you 

Please contact Aircraft Bluebook if you have any specific concern in a particular aircraft market. We will be happy to share with you the most up-to-date information available for your market segment. Call us toll-free at 877-531-1450 or direct at 913-967-1956.

[Go to Charts.]

Vol. 23, No. 4 | Dec. 10, 2010 | Go to Charts
by Carl Janssens, ASA | Aircraft Bluebook — Price Digest

Trading in the pre-owned aircraft market continued at a modest pace as the third quarter came to a close and aligned itself on fourth-quarter activity for 2010.

Inventories available for sale grew slightly. Also noteworthy was the decrease of aircraft being sold with minimal time-in-market exposure. Days on market were significantly higher, which allowed a better opportunity to fetch maximum value in current market conditions. Time and condition also contributed to being a variable in the equation. Well-equipped, ready-to-fly aircraft had the largest audience of interest. Price competition remained limited. Sale prices continued in a downward trend or remained stagnant according the particular model group.

Several noted outside indicators have a relationship to the health of the pre-owned aircraft market. The General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA) reported that shipments of turboprops and business jets manufactured worldwide were down when compared to the same time frame in 2009. Large fleet sales, such as those announced by Embraer recently, will have a future impact on pre-owned inventories when new deliveries replace current aircraft.

On other economic fronts, the $600 billion Federal Reserve QE2 (second round of quantitative easing) has yet to be observed as an action that will create growth in the business aviation sector. 

On related business fronts, brokers dealing with the sale of corporations and businesses are reporting more activity with transactions closing after a long drought. Opportunities to do business are again starting to flourish.

Jet

Bluebook-at-a-glance
Increased — 14
Decreased — 502
Stable — 370

Bombardier Global Express experienced a $1 million upward trend for select model years. Bombardier Challengers were trending downward for the most part. Late-model Gulfstream G-550s were reported with a $1 million positive trend when compared to the fall Aircraft Bluebook. The Citation X was off a half million while the Sovereign was also down about $400,000. Depending on the model, most Dassault Falcons were also off when compared to the last quarter. The Hawker 800 was down $300,000. Light jets, such as the Cessna 525 were generally trending downward. Legacy Citation aircraft, such as the Citation II, were also off by about $100,000.

Turboprop

Bluebook-at-a-glance
Increased — 40
Decreased — 111
Stable — 444

The DeHavilland Twin Otter DHC-6 again trended upward when compared to the previous quarter. The Piper Meridian PA 46TP was raised $100,000 for the winter Bluebook. Select model years of the Piaggio P180 were also up in value. Legacy aircraft, such as the Cessna Conquest and Fairchild Metro, were down for this reporting period. Select late-model Beechcraft King Airs were also down. The majority of turboprop aircraft reported in Bluebook remained stable.

Multi

Bluebook-at-a-glance
Increased — 14
Decreased — 106
Stable — 534

Positive gains were limited for the multi engine category. Select 340s and 414s were up about $5000. The Twin Commander Fuji 700 increased by $10,000. Most Beech Barons were off about $5000. Select Piper Twins were also down an average of $5000. Values for the majority of the multi engine category remained unchanged.

Single

Bluebook-at-a-glance
Increased — 323
Decreased — 261
Stable — 1913

Bellanca experienced some positive gains. Average retail prices for select models were up slightly from the previous quarter. See the Bluebook for details.

Select legacy Cessna and Piper singles also had minor increases when compared to the previous quarter. The majority of the single engine market segment remained unchanged.

Helicopter

Bluebook-at-a-glance
Increased — 20
Decreased — 197
Stable — 831

The Bell 205 trended upward for the winter edition of Aircraft Bluebook. The Enstrom 480 also improved in retail value when compared to the previous quarter. The majority of the helicopter segment remained unchanged.

Aircraft Bluebook–Price Digest here for you

Please contact Aircraft Bluebook if you have any specific concern in a particular aircraft market. We will be happy to share with you the most up-to-date information available for your market segment. Call us toll-free at 877-531-1450 or direct at 913-967-1913.

[Go to Charts.]