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Entries by Aircraft Bluebook Marketline (178)

BUSINESS AIRCRAFT MARKET RECOVERING DESPITE ECONOMIC WOES

Vol. 24, No. 2 | June 6, 2011 | Go to Charts
by Carl Janssens, ASA | Aircraft Bluebook — Price Digest

News networks these days have few positive perceptions when reporting on the U.S. economic recovery. Stories cite home foreclosures, a lack of jobs and the price of gas as prospective signs of a weak economy.

While doubts persist about the United States in an economic recovery, the business aviation sector is not following suit. For instance, late-model, large-cabin, long-range aircraft are selling at or above values published in the Aircraft Bluebook.

While North American business aircraft transactions have been lackluster, increasing sales on other continents are supporting the overall business aircraft market. Whatever the reason, inventories for late-model aircraft for sale continue to shrink. This can be interpreted as an indication of values held in check.

New aircraft models designed and equipped with the latest technology are breathing new life into the industry. Legacy aircraft, on the other hand, will never experience an economic comeback. Darwin’s “survival of the fittest” affects business aircraft, too.

While the U.S. economy still struggles to make a better comeback, business aviation has wheels in the well for the long haul.

Jet

Bluebook-at-a-glance
Increased — 41
Decreased — 298
Stable — 583

Lear 35s are now being reported with MSP, and values trended upward due to the reported equipped price in Bluebook. Late-model Bombardier Global XRSes gained value by $1 million when compared to the previous quarter.

Turboprop

Bluebook-at-a-glance
Increased — 1
Decreased — 93
Stable — 511

Like the rest of the industry, turboprops continued to demonstrate some good signs of stability. Payload, range and cost of operation will be key factors to watch. As competition for commodities becomes more aggressive on a global level, bringing new services to remote regions of the world will also play a role in continued stability in this market segment.

Multi

Bluebook-at-a-glance
Increased — 10
Decreased — 32
Stable — 616

Single

Bluebook-at-a-glance
Increased — 148
Decreased — 335
Stable — 2056

The multi and single markets are some of the best indicators of stability. A majority of these aircraft are represented by personal acquisition. Buyers and sellers agree on price, and financial institutions fund these transactions.

Helicopter

Bluebook-at-a-glance
Increased — 69
Decreased — 122
Stable — 865

The Robinson R44 and R22 gained slightly in value when compared to the previous quarter. The majority of models remained stable for another quarter.

Aircraft Bluebook–Price Digest here for you

Please contact Aircraft Bluebook if you have any specific concern in a particular aircraft market. We will be happy to share with you the most up-to-date information available for your market segment. Call us toll-free at 877-531-1450 or direct at 913-967-1913.

[Go to Charts.]

CHARTS — JUNE 6, 2011

Used Aircraft Market: This chart displays each model's quarterly value in relationship to its average equipped price at the inception of the aircraft. The study begins in the spring quarter of 1994 and includes the Jet, Turboprop, Multi, Piston and Helicopter. For all charts, the red number indicates the first reporting date after 9-11.

Jet: The jet chart depicts the average price (in thousands) of the six 1990s jets listed in the box.

Turboprop: The turboprop chart depicts the average price (in thousands) of a 1985, 1986 and four 1990 turboprops listed in the box.

Multi: The multi chart depicts the average price (in thousands) of the six multi models listed in the box. Each model’s year will precede the name of the aircraft.

Piston: The piston chart depicts the average price (in thousands) of the 10 pistons listed in the box. Each model’s year will precede the name of the aircraft.

Helicopter: The helicopter chart depicts the average price (in thousands) of the six helicopters listed in the box. Each model’s year will precede the name of the aircraft.

NASDAQ: This ratio scale chart depicts the change for the NASDAQ daily average from quarter to quarter beginning at the end of the first quarter of 1992. Each data point represents the closing daily average on the last trading day of each quarter. This study originates in the first quarter of 1971.

Aircraft on Registry: The Aircraft on Registry chart depicts the number of aircraft reported in Aircraft Bluebook that are listed on FAA records and considered to be in the U.S. inventory.

U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (criteria updated Aug. 27, 2010): This graph represents real gross domestic product measured by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Each data point represents the BEA's final figure or latest estimate of the quarter-to-quarter seasonally adjusted annual rates of change in real GDP "based on chained 2005 dollars." The study begins with the second quarter in 2005.

Single/Multi: The blue line in the Single/Multi chart depicts change-of-ownership data for singles. The black line represents multis.

Jet/Turboprop/Heli: The black line in the Jet/Turboprop/Heli chart represents change-of-ownership information for jets. The blue line depicts turboprops, and the gray line represents helicopters.

Total Market: Depicts change-of-ownership data for all aircraft included in the Aircraft Bluebook. The numbers are from the FAA Registry. Gliders, homebuilts, airliners and other aircraft not found in the Bluebook are not included in this study.

USED AIRCRAFT MARKET OFF TO GOOD START IN 2011

Vol. 24, No. 1 | March 8, 2011 | Go to Charts
by Carl Janssens, ASA | Aircraft Bluebook — Price Digest

Have you ever been involved in an incident when you actually made the news?

I have. No, nothing in my life as the editor of Aircraft Bluebook–Price Digest has been particularly newsworthy. But in my previous life as a 25-year veteran in law enforcement with the Kansas City, Mo., Police Department, I sure can relate.

In some cases, my experiences during a particular incident and what I later read in the news about the same incident did not match. Not to knock any journalists for their reporting skills, I am making the point that it is hard to report third-hand information.

Instead of reviewing market statistics to summarize business aircraft activity, I’m going to shoot from the hip, so to speak, and generalize my personal experiences with those I have been in direct contact with who were directly involved with an aircraft transaction.

Business has improved. The only downside to making the deal happen is that the values of yesterday in some aircraft markets are not making a comeback. Breaking it down, late-model, long-range large-cabins are competitive. I can say this because reported values are not skidding downhill. They are holding steady if not improving. Time and condition do impact value.

Looking at the mid-cabin class, sales are also rebounding, but pricing, not so much. Yesterday’s sale price is stronger than today’s. It is what it is.

Light jets and VLJs tell the same story as the mid-cabin class. Turboprops, the muscle of short hops, heavy loads and limited runway environments, are showing a good steady trend of transactions. On the topic of values, what these turboprops are worth today will be a little less tomorrow. If I had to give it a name, I would call it standard depreciation. That alibi will just about work anywhere.

Purchasing piston-powered aircraft is like buying a car. Who in their right mind would buy a new car as an investment? Reported transactions seem to follow my rationalization. I could not find one person who bought a piston-powered aircraft for an investment but plenty who bought for business use and even a few — very few — who bought for personal recreation. No discoveries were noted with values improving, but again, there were plenty of sales.

I have been with the Bluebook for a dozen years now. Reporting on values would be difficult if not for the good support I get from all of you in the trenches making transactions happen. My sincere thanks and gratitude.

Jet

Bluebook-at-a-glance
Increased — 3
Decreased — 534
Stable — 378

Early model Citation Xs were down this quarter. The Citation Mustang gained $100,000 when compared to the winter quarter. The late-model, long-range, large-cabin-class business jets remained stable for yet another quarter. Mid-range cabin business jets were off slightly again this quarter. Check your Bluebook for specifics.

Turboprop

Bluebook-at-a-glance
Increased — 0
Decreased — 70
Stable — 530

The turboprop market displayed little movement in values when compared to the previous quarter. Prices, still softer than previous reporting periods, were not eclipsed by the sales volume of aircraft.

Multi

Bluebook-at-a-glance
Increased — 12
Decreased — 38
Stable — 605

In the multi-engine category, sales reports were better than what Bluebook received for the previous quarter. Quantity was higher while values remained fairly stable.

Single

Bluebook-at-a-glance
Increased — 133
Decreased — 280
Stable — 2095

There was a slight increase in values of the Beechcraft Bonanza 36 series. Reported retail values were slightly higher than the winter Bluebook values. Take a look in the Bluebook to see if your aircraft got the positive bump in value this quarter. Ag piston aircraft values increased this reporting period as well. 

Helicopter

Bluebook-at-a-glance
Increased — 33
Decreased — 79
Stable — 942

This market is all about time and condition. Overall, rotary market sales have been nearly the same in the value range when compared to recent Bluebook retail values.

Aircraft Bluebook–Price Digest here for you

Please contact Aircraft Bluebook if you have any specific concern in a particular aircraft market. We will be happy to share with you the most up-to-date information available for your market segment. Call us toll-free at 877-531-1450 or direct at 913-967-1913.

[Go to Charts.]

CHARTS — MARCH 8, 2011

Used Aircraft Market: This chart displays each model's quarterly value in relationship to its average equipped price at the inception of the aircraft. The study begins in the spring quarter of 1994 and includes the Jet, Turboprop, Multi, Piston and Helicopter. For all charts, the red number indicates the first reporting date after 9-11.

Jet: The jet chart depicts the average price (in thousands) of the six 1990s jets listed in the box.

Turboprop: The turboprop chart depicts the average price (in thousands) of a 1985, 1986 and four 1990 turboprops listed in the box.

Multi: The multi chart depicts the average price (in thousands) of the six multi models listed in the box. Each model’s year will precede the name of the aircraft.

Piston: The piston chart depicts the average price (in thousands) of the 10 pistons listed in the box. Each model’s year will precede the name of the aircraft.

Helicopter: The helicopter chart depicts the average price (in thousands) of the six helicopters listed in the box. Each model’s year will precede the name of the aircraft.

NASDAQ: This ratio scale chart depicts the change for the NASDAQ daily average from quarter to quarter beginning at the end of the first quarter of 1992. Each data point represents the closing daily average on the last trading day of each quarter. This study originates in the first quarter of 1971.

Aircraft on Registry: The Aircraft on Registry chart depicts the number of aircraft reported in Aircraft Bluebook that are listed on FAA records and considered to be in the U.S. inventory.

U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (criteria updated Aug. 27, 2010): This graph represents real gross domestic product measured by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Each data point represents the BEA's final figure or latest estimate of the quarter-to-quarter seasonally adjusted annual rates of change in real GDP "based on chained 2005 dollars." The study begins with the second quarter in 2005.

Single/Multi: The blue line in the Single/Multi chart depicts change-of-ownership data for singles. The black line represents multis.

Jet/Turboprop/Heli: The black line in the Jet/Turboprop/Heli chart represents change-of-ownership information for jets. The blue line depicts turboprops, and the gray line represents helicopters.

Total Market: Depicts change-of-ownership data for all aircraft included in the Aircraft Bluebook. The numbers are from the FAA Registry. Gliders, homebuilts, airliners and other aircraft not found in the Bluebook are not included in this study.

PRE-OWNED AIRCRAFT TRADING CONTINUES AT MODEST PACE

Vol. 23, No. 4 | Dec. 10, 2010 | Go to Charts
by Carl Janssens, ASA | Aircraft Bluebook — Price Digest

Trading in the pre-owned aircraft market continued at a modest pace as the third quarter came to a close and aligned itself on fourth-quarter activity for 2010.

Inventories available for sale grew slightly. Also noteworthy was the decrease of aircraft being sold with minimal time-in-market exposure. Days on market were significantly higher, which allowed a better opportunity to fetch maximum value in current market conditions. Time and condition also contributed to being a variable in the equation. Well-equipped, ready-to-fly aircraft had the largest audience of interest. Price competition remained limited. Sale prices continued in a downward trend or remained stagnant according the particular model group.

Several noted outside indicators have a relationship to the health of the pre-owned aircraft market. The General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA) reported that shipments of turboprops and business jets manufactured worldwide were down when compared to the same time frame in 2009. Large fleet sales, such as those announced by Embraer recently, will have a future impact on pre-owned inventories when new deliveries replace current aircraft.

On other economic fronts, the $600 billion Federal Reserve QE2 (second round of quantitative easing) has yet to be observed as an action that will create growth in the business aviation sector. 

On related business fronts, brokers dealing with the sale of corporations and businesses are reporting more activity with transactions closing after a long drought. Opportunities to do business are again starting to flourish.

Jet

Bluebook-at-a-glance
Increased — 14
Decreased — 502
Stable — 370

Bombardier Global Express experienced a $1 million upward trend for select model years. Bombardier Challengers were trending downward for the most part. Late-model Gulfstream G-550s were reported with a $1 million positive trend when compared to the fall Aircraft Bluebook. The Citation X was off a half million while the Sovereign was also down about $400,000. Depending on the model, most Dassault Falcons were also off when compared to the last quarter. The Hawker 800 was down $300,000. Light jets, such as the Cessna 525 were generally trending downward. Legacy Citation aircraft, such as the Citation II, were also off by about $100,000.

Turboprop

Bluebook-at-a-glance
Increased — 40
Decreased — 111
Stable — 444

The DeHavilland Twin Otter DHC-6 again trended upward when compared to the previous quarter. The Piper Meridian PA 46TP was raised $100,000 for the winter Bluebook. Select model years of the Piaggio P180 were also up in value. Legacy aircraft, such as the Cessna Conquest and Fairchild Metro, were down for this reporting period. Select late-model Beechcraft King Airs were also down. The majority of turboprop aircraft reported in Bluebook remained stable.

Multi

Bluebook-at-a-glance
Increased — 14
Decreased — 106
Stable — 534

Positive gains were limited for the multi engine category. Select 340s and 414s were up about $5000. The Twin Commander Fuji 700 increased by $10,000. Most Beech Barons were off about $5000. Select Piper Twins were also down an average of $5000. Values for the majority of the multi engine category remained unchanged.

Single

Bluebook-at-a-glance
Increased — 323
Decreased — 261
Stable — 1913

Bellanca experienced some positive gains. Average retail prices for select models were up slightly from the previous quarter. See the Bluebook for details.

Select legacy Cessna and Piper singles also had minor increases when compared to the previous quarter. The majority of the single engine market segment remained unchanged.

Helicopter

Bluebook-at-a-glance
Increased — 20
Decreased — 197
Stable — 831

The Bell 205 trended upward for the winter edition of Aircraft Bluebook. The Enstrom 480 also improved in retail value when compared to the previous quarter. The majority of the helicopter segment remained unchanged.

Aircraft Bluebook–Price Digest here for you

Please contact Aircraft Bluebook if you have any specific concern in a particular aircraft market. We will be happy to share with you the most up-to-date information available for your market segment. Call us toll-free at 877-531-1450 or direct at 913-967-1913.

[Go to Charts.]