Vol. 26, No. 1 | March 11, 2013 | Go to Charts

IN THIS ISSUE

Bluebook Perspectives: Pre-Owned Transactions on the Rise
Into the Blue: Aircraft Bluebook At-a-Glance, Piper Malibu Meridian, PA-46-500TP series
Ask Aircraft Bluebook: Can I access Aircraft Bluebook from outside the United States?

[Download the full Spring 2013 Marketline Newsletter and All Charts.]

PRE-OWNED TRANSACTIONS ON THE RISE:

By Dennis Rousseau | President and Founder | AircraftPost.com

For the fifth consecutive year, pre-owned transactions for current generation business jets have shown a year over year increase. However, market inventories, expressed as a percentage of the fleet, are on the rise, while the average selling price continues a downward trend.

When we factor age-based depreciation over a 30-year lifecycle, we can garner some semblance of normalized value at any given point. However, when we consider economic events such as those over the last four years, values and selling prices can take a drastic downward turn. At the end of 2012, the average selling price for pre-owned, current production aircraft was reflecting a 17% decline in market value. Out of production aircraft slipped further to 33% under normalized values.

There are a number of factors contributing to the state of our market(s). The increase in transactions and current pricing suggests buyers are realizing substantial value in select aircraft. For example the G200, with its stand-up cabin, 3000 nm range and Pro Line 4 cockpit, had a record 27 transactions in 2012, an increase of over 300% from 2011. A 2008 year model, with a list price new of $22M, sold for $10M in the 4th Quarter 2012, with under 800 hours total time. The same $10M could buy a 2001 Challenger 604 or Falcon 2000 with 3500 hours, or a 2004 Challenger 300 with 7500 hours. Buyers seem to be looking more laterally with the perception of ‘how much value can I buy for the same dollar.’ Obviously, the newer aircraft open up greater financing opportunities as well.

Compared to 2008, when pre-owned aircraft were selling for more than they cost new, 2012 continued to adjust prices to a level commensurate with the global economic climate. On average, pre-owned business jets are selling 25% under normalized markets, which seems to be one of the driving factors for the increased transactions. Further, according to GAMA new business jet deliveries for the first nine months of 2011 and 2012 were 427 and 428 respectively. When current production pre-owned aircraft are selling for 40% less than they cost new, this can also stimulate the number of pre-owned transactions.

For the start of 2013, pre-owned inventories are on the rise; however activity levels (pre-purchase inspections, LOIs, Offers to Purchase, et al) are showing formidable signs for consistent activity.

Aircraft Bluebook – Price Digest here for you 

Please contact Aircraft Bluebook if you have any specific concern in a particular aircraft market. We will be happy to share with you the most up-to-date information available for your market segment. Call us toll-free at 877-531-1450 or direct at 913-967-1956.

[Go to Charts.]

CURRENT MARKET STRENGTH

Click to View Full Size ChartCMS represents an aircraft’s current strength in the market.  An A+ rating indicates the aircraft is enjoying a very firm market.  Prices for an A+ aircraft are steadily rising, and holding times are very short or nonexistent.  At the opposite end of the spectrum, a C- aircraft is one experiencing a very soft market.  Its price is commonly discounted, and it often sets on the ramp in excess of eight months before selling.  It is important to remember that Current Market Strength is not a forecast.  It is valid only at  Marketline’s effective date of release.

MARKETLINE CHARTS

Click to View Full Size ChartAll of the listed aircraft have a composite score that is presented in the Used Aircraft Market graph.  Data points are represented in relationship to the respective new delivered historical price that is equal to 100%.  The measure of change is reported in the actual percentage of value in relation to new.  The delta between reporting periods can be concluded as the percentage of change.

Click here to download a PDF of the full Marketline Newsletter, including articles and all Charts.

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Vol. 25, No. 4 | December 7, 2012 | Go to Charts

IN THIS ISSUE

Bluebook Perspectives: Facing the Nation
Into the Blue: Aircraft Bluebook At-a-Glance, Cessna 152 Series
Ask Aircraft Bluebook: In the aircraft base average lines in the Bluebook we always see the “No Damage History” as a standard requirement, but if there is damage how does the Bluebook reflect this in terms of value?

[Download the full Winter 2012 Marketline Newsletter and All Charts.]

INTO THE BLUE:
Aircraft Bluebook At-a-Glance - Cessna 152 Series

by Chris Reynolds, ASA | Aircraft Bluebook — Price Digest®

Aircraft Bluebook-Price Digest At-a-Glance has reviewed the current market status of the Cessna 152 series aircraft. Research for this study was obtained in part from Aircraft Bluebook, Aircraft Bluebook’s Historical Value Reference, the FAA’s registry web site and various trade publications.

Demand
According to FAA records, around 3,098 Cessna 152s are registered in the United States with 3,018 being 152s and 80 as A-152s. At the time of the writing of this article, over 50 various year models of the 152 series were for sale in the major aircraft trade publications, representing approximately 1.5% percent of the total registered fleet. While the Cessna 152 is a light two seat aircraft, it is not classified as a LSA (due to it exceeding the 1,320 pound Maximum Take Off Weight limit for LSAs).

Pricing
Current offerings for Cessna 152s range in asking prices from $16,000 to $87,000 with the majority of pricing between $20,000 to $40,000. As expected, time, equipment and condition not only will impact the asking price, but selling price as well. The 152 has primarily been used as a training aircraft and thus most aircraft for sale are going to be high-time airframes. The average airframe time for an early 1970s - 1986 model is approximately 7,000 – 12,000 hours. Most will not be equipped with next generation avionics, but with the availability of inexpensive components modern upgrades can easily be accommodated, without significant modifications. The winter 2012 Aircraft Bluebook lists a 1985 Cessna 152B with a reported Average Retail price of $26,000.

Historical Values
A 1985 Cessna 152B, whose market values have been tracked since the first quarter of 1985 was reported new with a standard list price of $30,900 and an average equipped price of $45,345. Aircraft Bluebook-Price Digest’s Historical Value Reference has demonstrated the Cessna 152’s market value performance by quarter in the graph for this 1985 model.

Other historical values can be obtained at Aircraft Bluebook’s website, www.aircraftbluebook.com.

Aircraft Bluebook – Price Digest here for you 

Please contact Aircraft Bluebook if you have any specific concern in a particular aircraft market. We will be happy to share with you the most up-to-date information available for your market segment. Call us toll-free at 877-531-1450 or direct at 913-967-1956.

[Go to Charts.]

Vol. 25, No. 4 | December 7, 2012 | Go to Charts

IN THIS ISSUE

Bluebook Perspectives: Facing the Nation
Into the Blue: Aircraft Bluebook At-a-Glance, Cessna 152 Series
Ask Aircraft Bluebook: In the aircraft base average lines in the Bluebook we always see the “No Damage History” as a standard requirement, but if there is damage how does the Bluebook reflect this in terms of value?

[Download the full Winter 2012 Marketline Newsletter and All Charts.]

BLUEBOOK PERSPECTIVES:
Facing the Nation

by Carl Janssens, ASA | Aircraft Bluebook — Price Digest

It is all said and done.  A new leader has been chosen. The challenges of this executive office are staggering.  Creating jobs for the people in his charge, modification of the healthcare system and ongoing issues with a slowing economy are enormous.
Yes, the newly appointed leader of the People’s Republic of China, Xi Jinping, faces many complex challenges in the days ahead. Similar to President Barack Obama, how policies will be developed to benefit his countrymen have yet to be revealed. One thing is certain, China is focused on growing its economy, so much so that it is predicted to surpass the U.S. economy in less than five years – or so critics think.
Having visited Savannah, Georgia recently, one would see a boom town of growth. Construction is everywhere around the Gulfstream campus. So, if there are such great opportunities to sell aircraft, why aren’t prices more stable these days? I suggest prices are stable, with the exception of Hawker aircraft, for reasons already clear to the aviation community. OEMs are selling new aircraft and making money.  
Dealing with the pre-owned market is a bit more challenging. The pre-owned market is being re-defined by the velocity of transactions. It takes more than just a few transactions to make the pre-owned market move in the right direction. Price is always a concern.  Sellers want maximum return on their assets. Buyers want compensation for future values up front — in the form of discounts.  Similar to the way politics are supposed to work, somewhere in the middle, at least in the playing field of a deal, a resolution is made and a sale is complete.  Both buyer and seller may not be happy, but the best outcome was agreed upon by both parties, while the old adage of economics; supply and demand referee.  When it comes to the bottom line, the question should be: was the business tool, the corporate aircraft, a needed asset in growing profits by its ability to move folks in an efficient and timely manner?  The answer will always be “yes.” Walking around sock-footed and beltless takes time- and time is money. Sure, things could be better, corporations could become more confident in the economy and make some capital investments in their transportation budget, and a legislative agenda for growing the economy could be revealed by President Obama. But none of that looks like it’s going to happen any time soon. One can always hope for better times, but don’t neglect the opportunities that are still available now.
Looking at the BLUEBOOK-AT-A-GLANCE column (page 1) shows a market in motion. Prices for pre-owned aircraft continue to decrease quarter-to-quarter in the jet and turboprop category. Days on market for properly priced aircraft are moving on to new owners in a matter of months. Movement is good.
Fixed wing single and multi engine values remain stable, while the helicopter segment also is reporting a majority of models with no change in values, when compared to the previous quarter. To see what changes have occurred in values, refer to the newly released edition of Aircraft Bluebook – Price Digest®.

Aircraft Bluebook – Price Digest here for you 

Please contact Aircraft Bluebook if you have any specific concern in a particular aircraft market. We will be happy to share with you the most up-to-date information available for your market segment. Call us toll-free at 877-531-1450 or direct at 913-967-1956.

[Go to Charts.]

CURRENT MARKET STRENGTH

Click to View Full Size ChartCMS represents an aircraft’s current strength in the market.  An A+ rating indicates the aircraft is enjoying a very firm market.  Prices for an A+ aircraft are steadily rising, and holding times are very short or nonexistent.  At the opposite end of the spectrum, a C- aircraft is one experiencing a very soft market.  Its price is commonly discounted, and it often sets on the ramp in excess of eight months before selling.  It is important to remember that Current Market Strength is not a forecast.  It is valid only at  Marketline’s effective date of release.

MARKETLINE CHARTS

Click to View Full Size ChartAll of the listed aircraft have a composite score that is presented in the Used Aircraft Market graph.  Data points are represented in relationship to the respective new delivered historical price that is equal to 100%.  The measure of change is reported in the actual percentage of value in relation to new.  The delta between reporting periods can be concluded as the percentage of change.

Click here to download a PDF of the full Marketline Newsletter, including articles and all Charts.

  Click to View Full Size Chart Click to View Full Size ChartClick to View Full Size Chart Click to View Full Size Chart Click to View Full Size Chart Click to View Full Size Chart