Vol. 25, No. 4 | December 7, 2012 | Go to Charts

IN THIS ISSUE

Bluebook Perspectives: Facing the Nation
Into the Blue: Aircraft Bluebook At-a-Glance, Cessna 152 Series
Ask Aircraft Bluebook: In the aircraft base average lines in the Bluebook we always see the “No Damage History” as a standard requirement, but if there is damage how does the Bluebook reflect this in terms of value?

[Download the full Winter 2012 Marketline Newsletter and All Charts.]

INTO THE BLUE:
Aircraft Bluebook At-a-Glance - Cessna 152 Series

by Chris Reynolds, ASA | Aircraft Bluebook — Price Digest®

Aircraft Bluebook-Price Digest At-a-Glance has reviewed the current market status of the Cessna 152 series aircraft. Research for this study was obtained in part from Aircraft Bluebook, Aircraft Bluebook’s Historical Value Reference, the FAA’s registry web site and various trade publications.

Demand
According to FAA records, around 3,098 Cessna 152s are registered in the United States with 3,018 being 152s and 80 as A-152s. At the time of the writing of this article, over 50 various year models of the 152 series were for sale in the major aircraft trade publications, representing approximately 1.5% percent of the total registered fleet. While the Cessna 152 is a light two seat aircraft, it is not classified as a LSA (due to it exceeding the 1,320 pound Maximum Take Off Weight limit for LSAs).

Pricing
Current offerings for Cessna 152s range in asking prices from $16,000 to $87,000 with the majority of pricing between $20,000 to $40,000. As expected, time, equipment and condition not only will impact the asking price, but selling price as well. The 152 has primarily been used as a training aircraft and thus most aircraft for sale are going to be high-time airframes. The average airframe time for an early 1970s - 1986 model is approximately 7,000 – 12,000 hours. Most will not be equipped with next generation avionics, but with the availability of inexpensive components modern upgrades can easily be accommodated, without significant modifications. The winter 2012 Aircraft Bluebook lists a 1985 Cessna 152B with a reported Average Retail price of $26,000.

Historical Values
A 1985 Cessna 152B, whose market values have been tracked since the first quarter of 1985 was reported new with a standard list price of $30,900 and an average equipped price of $45,345. Aircraft Bluebook-Price Digest’s Historical Value Reference has demonstrated the Cessna 152’s market value performance by quarter in the graph for this 1985 model.

Other historical values can be obtained at Aircraft Bluebook’s website, www.aircraftbluebook.com.

Aircraft Bluebook – Price Digest here for you 

Please contact Aircraft Bluebook if you have any specific concern in a particular aircraft market. We will be happy to share with you the most up-to-date information available for your market segment. Call us toll-free at 877-531-1450 or direct at 913-967-1956.

[Go to Charts.]

Vol. 25, No. 4 | December 7, 2012 | Go to Charts

IN THIS ISSUE

Bluebook Perspectives: Facing the Nation
Into the Blue: Aircraft Bluebook At-a-Glance, Cessna 152 Series
Ask Aircraft Bluebook: In the aircraft base average lines in the Bluebook we always see the “No Damage History” as a standard requirement, but if there is damage how does the Bluebook reflect this in terms of value?

[Download the full Winter 2012 Marketline Newsletter and All Charts.]

BLUEBOOK PERSPECTIVES:
Facing the Nation

by Carl Janssens, ASA | Aircraft Bluebook — Price Digest

It is all said and done.  A new leader has been chosen. The challenges of this executive office are staggering.  Creating jobs for the people in his charge, modification of the healthcare system and ongoing issues with a slowing economy are enormous.
Yes, the newly appointed leader of the People’s Republic of China, Xi Jinping, faces many complex challenges in the days ahead. Similar to President Barack Obama, how policies will be developed to benefit his countrymen have yet to be revealed. One thing is certain, China is focused on growing its economy, so much so that it is predicted to surpass the U.S. economy in less than five years – or so critics think.
Having visited Savannah, Georgia recently, one would see a boom town of growth. Construction is everywhere around the Gulfstream campus. So, if there are such great opportunities to sell aircraft, why aren’t prices more stable these days? I suggest prices are stable, with the exception of Hawker aircraft, for reasons already clear to the aviation community. OEMs are selling new aircraft and making money.  
Dealing with the pre-owned market is a bit more challenging. The pre-owned market is being re-defined by the velocity of transactions. It takes more than just a few transactions to make the pre-owned market move in the right direction. Price is always a concern.  Sellers want maximum return on their assets. Buyers want compensation for future values up front — in the form of discounts.  Similar to the way politics are supposed to work, somewhere in the middle, at least in the playing field of a deal, a resolution is made and a sale is complete.  Both buyer and seller may not be happy, but the best outcome was agreed upon by both parties, while the old adage of economics; supply and demand referee.  When it comes to the bottom line, the question should be: was the business tool, the corporate aircraft, a needed asset in growing profits by its ability to move folks in an efficient and timely manner?  The answer will always be “yes.” Walking around sock-footed and beltless takes time- and time is money. Sure, things could be better, corporations could become more confident in the economy and make some capital investments in their transportation budget, and a legislative agenda for growing the economy could be revealed by President Obama. But none of that looks like it’s going to happen any time soon. One can always hope for better times, but don’t neglect the opportunities that are still available now.
Looking at the BLUEBOOK-AT-A-GLANCE column (page 1) shows a market in motion. Prices for pre-owned aircraft continue to decrease quarter-to-quarter in the jet and turboprop category. Days on market for properly priced aircraft are moving on to new owners in a matter of months. Movement is good.
Fixed wing single and multi engine values remain stable, while the helicopter segment also is reporting a majority of models with no change in values, when compared to the previous quarter. To see what changes have occurred in values, refer to the newly released edition of Aircraft Bluebook – Price Digest®.

Aircraft Bluebook – Price Digest here for you 

Please contact Aircraft Bluebook if you have any specific concern in a particular aircraft market. We will be happy to share with you the most up-to-date information available for your market segment. Call us toll-free at 877-531-1450 or direct at 913-967-1956.

[Go to Charts.]

CURRENT MARKET STRENGTH

Click to View Full Size ChartCMS represents an aircraft’s current strength in the market.  An A+ rating indicates the aircraft is enjoying a very firm market.  Prices for an A+ aircraft are steadily rising, and holding times are very short or nonexistent.  At the opposite end of the spectrum, a C- aircraft is one experiencing a very soft market.  Its price is commonly discounted, and it often sets on the ramp in excess of eight months before selling.  It is important to remember that Current Market Strength is not a forecast.  It is valid only at  Marketline’s effective date of release.

MARKETLINE CHARTS

Click to View Full Size ChartAll of the listed aircraft have a composite score that is presented in the Used Aircraft Market graph.  Data points are represented in relationship to the respective new delivered historical price that is equal to 100%.  The measure of change is reported in the actual percentage of value in relation to new.  The delta between reporting periods can be concluded as the percentage of change.

Click here to download a PDF of the full Marketline Newsletter, including articles and all Charts.

  Click to View Full Size Chart Click to View Full Size ChartClick to View Full Size Chart Click to View Full Size Chart Click to View Full Size Chart Click to View Full Size Chart

Vol. 25, No. 3 | September 5, 2012 | Go to Charts

IN THIS ISSUE

Bluebook Perspectives: Heat-Thunder and Politics
Into the Blue: Cessna Citations - How to Keep Them All Straight
Ask Aircraft Bluebook: I have a Cessna 340A that has had a RAM VII overhaul & improvement. How do I adjust for this using the Bluebook?

[Download the full Fall 2012 Marketline Newsletter and All Charts.]

BLUEBOOK PERSPECTIVES:
Heat - Thunder and Politics

by Carl Janssens, ASA | Aircraft Bluebook — Price Digest

From a weather perspective, the first quarter of 2012 in Kansas City, wasn’t so bad. What should have been snow and ice, turned out to be an early Spring. Second quarter April showers brought some May flowers, but after that it got hot, really hot – Arizona hot. Or, in the words of Airman Adrian Cronauer in the film Good Morning Vietnam, “It’s hot!” With the heat came … nothing. Mother Nature dried her tear ducts. A severe drought not only ensued, but is still in progress. Not to say there haven’t been occasional claps of thunder, but nothing apart from hit and miss precipitation. The only thing in abundance is politics. As everyone knows by tuning into their favorite media outlet, it is the Olympics of American politics.
No, this isn’t about weather or politics, but a great metaphor to describe the current general and business aviation re-sale economy.
Talk about heat, the ongoing battle over user’s fees has the interest of general aviation standing at attention. Not that user fees will cause a grinding halt to general aviation, but it will certainly stifle its spirit. That’s not good. Then, there are environmental issues, such as taking the low lead out of avgas in California. Buyers and sellers are keenly aware of these and other issues impacting our aviation marketplace. After these hurdles are cleared, then the aircraft’s time and condition, along with market perception, will make up the sweet spot that makes a deal happen.
Along with the heat, there is a drought. Our industry has been a dustbowl since 2008. Even in a drought, an occasional clap of thunder happens. Not frequently, just here and there. Like thunder, there are similar pockets of activity that continue to bring relief, and more importantly, movement to the pre-owned market. New sales by aircraft manufacturers bring a compounded chain reaction. Market perceptions are related to the amount of activity being experienced in the pre-owned market. Moving the pre-owned inventory entails incredible knowledge and insight on the part of the aircraft dealer/broker. Bluebook help sheets collected from various dealers and brokers, report positive sales activity to others hoping activity will pick up. Just like a summer thunderstorm, it’s a hit and miss scenario.
The presidential and national elections are dragging the economy, including the pre-owned aircraft market. Seems like Wall Street is slumbering in an attempt to wait and see what kind of day with arise on November 6, 2012. At least this election is anticipated to be decisive, and not a repeat of the November 2000 election. What’s good or bad will be decided by the people.
Values have been predictable, as reference in Bluebook-At-A-Glance. A majority of aircraft in the jet category trended downward when compared to summer 2012 Bluebook values. Reasons include: better than average inventories, a buyer’s market, and finance. Turboprops were mostly stable with little trending when compared to the previous reporting quarter. Likewise, Aircraft Bluebook – Price Digest is reporting a stable market for the multi, single and helicopter categories with minimal trending.

Aircraft Bluebook – Price Digest here for you 

Please contact Aircraft Bluebook if you have any specific concern in a particular aircraft market. We will be happy to share with you the most up-to-date information available for your market segment. Call us toll-free at 877-531-1450 or direct at 913-967-1956.

[Go to Charts.]

CURRENT MARKET STRENGTH

Click to View Full Size ChartCMS represents an aircraft’s current strength in the market.  An A+ rating indicates the aircraft is enjoying a very firm market.  Prices for an A+ aircraft are steadily rising, and holding times are very short or nonexistent.  At the opposite end of the spectrum, a C- aircraft is one experiencing a very soft market.  Its price is commonly discounted, and it often sets on the ramp in excess of eight months before selling.  It is important to remember that Current Market Strength is not a forecast.  It is valid only at  Marketline’s effective date of release.

MARKETLINE CHARTS

Click to View Full Size ChartAll of the listed aircraft have a composite score that is presented in the Used Aircraft Market graph.  Data points are represented in relationship to the respective new delivered historical price that is equal to 100%.  The measure of change is reported in the actual percentage of value in relation to new.  The delta between reporting periods can be concluded as the percentage of change.

Click here to download a PDF of the full Marketline Newsletter, including articles and all Charts.

  Click to View Full Size Chart Click to View Full Size ChartClick to View Full Size Chart Click to View Full Size Chart Click to View Full Size Chart Click to View Full Size Chart